Fields

Science

Follow the ideas, assumptions and recurring failure modes in this field.

Demographics

In 1909, Mark Twain expected to die during Halley's Comet's 1910 return.

Mark Twain
United States

Made 1909Resolved 1910

Lucky SurvivorsRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

“landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth”

John F. Kennedy
United States

Made 1961Resolved 1969

EarnedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

An unknown planet could explain Uranus’s orbital deviations and be found near the calculated sky position.

Urbain Le Verrier
France

Made 1846Resolved 1846

Unscored / disputedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

For the pea traits studied, hybrid offspring would follow discrete, calculable inheritance ratios rather than permanently blend parental traits.

Gregor Mendel
Austrian Empire (now Czechia)

Made 1866Resolved 1900

EarnedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

Continents had once been joined and subsequently moved apart, making measurable horizontal motion a testable consequence.

Alfred Wegener
Germany

Made 1912Resolved 1968

Unscored / disputedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

The ExoMars Rosalind Franklin mission would launch in the July–August 2020 window and reach Mars in March 2021.

European Space Agency ExoMars project
European Space Agency

Made 2019Resolved 2020

Unscored / disputedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

Engineering target: Japan's next-generation supercomputer would offer 10 petaflops of computing performance on completion in 2012.

RIKEN
Japan

Made 2008Resolved 2011

EarnedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

Mission schedule: Hayabusa would rendezvous with Itokawa in 2005 and return to Earth in June 2007.

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
Japan

Made 2004Resolved 2010

Unscored / disputedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

Mission schedule: Chang'e-5 would land on the Moon and return with lunar samples in the second half of 2017.

State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense
China

Made 2016Resolved 2020

Unscored / disputedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

ISRO’s launch-day plan stated that Vikram would soft-land in the lunar south-polar region on September 7, 2019.

Indian Space Research Organisation
India

Made 2019Resolved 2019

Honourable GravesRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

After lunar-orbit insertion, ISRO stated that planned braking maneuvers would facilitate a soft landing on August 23, 2023.

Indian Space Research Organisation
India

Made 2023Resolved 2023

EarnedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

South Africa’s Science and Technology department said construction of SKA1’s additional antennas would commence in 2018.

South African Department of Science and Technology
South Africa

Made 2015Resolved 2022

Unscored / disputedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

“Hope probe will arrive to Mars on Feb. 9, 2021 at 7:42pm UAE timing.”

Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum / Emirates Mars Mission
United Arab Emirates

Made 2020Resolved 2021

EarnedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Food and agriculture

Jean Macnamara advocated testing myxomatosis as a means of controlling Australia's rabbits in 1934 and continued pressing after failures.

Jean Macnamara
Australia

Made 1934Resolved 1951

EarnedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Food and agriculture

Bull and Mules concluded in 1944 that myxomatosis offered little promise under most natural Australian conditions, while allowing temporary control with abundant insect vectors.

Lionel Bull and Bill Mules
Australia

Made 1944Resolved 1951

Unscored / disputedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

The comets of 1531, 1607 and 1682 were one object that would return in 1758.

Edmond Halley
United Kingdom

Made 1705Resolved 1758

EarnedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

General relativity permits gravitational waves: propagating disturbances produced by changing mass distributions.

Albert Einstein
Germany

Made 1916Resolved 2015

EarnedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

A previously unobserved anti-electron should have the electron’s mass and the opposite charge.

Paul A. M. Dirac
United Kingdom

Made 1931Resolved 1932

EarnedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

Beta decay emits a light, electrically neutral particle carrying the otherwise missing energy.

Wolfgang Pauli
Austria / Switzerland

Made 1930Resolved 1956

EarnedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Science

Spontaneous symmetry breaking in a gauge theory should leave a physical scalar boson associated with the mass-generating field.

Peter Higgs; François Englert; Robert Brout
United Kingdom / Belgium

Made 1964Resolved 2012

EarnedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Energy and climate

Extracting a useful power source from atomic transformations was an unrealistic expectation.

Ernest Rutherford
New Zealand / United Kingdom

Made 1933Resolved 1954

Unscored / disputedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Energy and climate

Business-as-usual emissions would produce roughly 0.3°C global warming per decade, with substantial uncertainty.

IPCC Working Group I
Multinational

Made 1990Resolved 2017

Unscored / disputedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit

Energy and climate

Scenario B projected continued global warming under reduced but continuing trace-gas growth.

James Hansen and colleagues
United States

Made 1988Resolved 2017

Unscored / disputedRead entry

Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit