Culture and media
William Miller
United States
United States
Made 1836Resolved 1844
Deserved GravesRead entry
Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit
An archive of futures that were
The future had
other plans.
Explore a global archive of predictions about technology, science, politics, and the economy. See who made each claim, the evidence behind it, and what actually happened.
Learn from forecasts that failed, succeeded, or were simply early. Spot misleading quotations, and test your own judgment in the Waiting Room.
A wrong forecast can be well reasoned. A right one can be lucky.
The question behind every headstone
Was the outcome wrong,
or was the reasoning?
They are two different judgments.
93Resolved archive entries
8Regions represented
10Quotation provenance cases
15Forecasts awaiting resolution
From the archive.
Browse every entry
Technology
John Elfreth Watkins Jr.
United States
United States
Made 1900Resolved 2000
EarnedRead entry
Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit
Environment
John Elfreth Watkins Jr.
United States
United States
Made 1900Resolved 2000
Deserved GravesRead entry
Original explanatory diagram · CC BY 4.0 credit
Walk through the wings.
A place for each kind of uncertainty.
01
The Graveyard
What was predicted. What actually happened.
02
Resurrection Wing
Claims that returned after apparent failure.
03
Right, But Early
The direction was right. The clock was wrong.
04
Unmarked Graves
Popular quotations the evidence cannot support.
05
The Waiting Room
The future still has time to answer.
Our method
Judge the reasoning.
Then judge the outcome.
Hindsight makes certainty look easy. We ask what the forecaster could reasonably have known at the time.
Read the methodEarned
Sound reasoning · right outcome
Honourable Graves
Sound reasoning · wrong outcome
Lucky Survivors
Poor reasoning · right outcome
Deserved Graves
Poor reasoning · wrong outcome
The world had other plans.
Explore the world atlasCounts describe this curated archive, not a region’s forecasting ability.
Place matters.
Explore all eight regions
No entries1–23–56+Country-specific archive entries
India outline: Survey of India, Government of India copyright; used for this educational website under its outline-map terms. Other countries: Natural Earth contributors, public domain. Geometry is projected and simplified for a locator map. Processing and source details.