The Prediction Graveyard
Made with ❤️ by Aniruddh JangidLinkedIn
The Graveyard / European Space Agency ExoMars project

resolved · Unscored / disputed

The ExoMars Rosalind Franklin mission would launch in the July–August 2020 window and reach Mars in March 2021.

Source-backed summary; not presented as a verbatim quotation.

European Space Agency ExoMars project
European intergovernmental space agency · European Space Agency

Made: 2019-10-15Resolved: 2020-03-12
Original conceptual trajectory diagram illustrating Right direction, wrong timing
Right direction, wrong timing. Original illustration for The Prediction Graveyard. Aniruddh Jangid, 2026. Original digital diagram. CC BY 4.0. Changes: none. This is a conceptual diagram, not an archival image.

The world at the time.

ESA maintained its 2020 schedule while hardware was completing final tests. The next available Mars transfer opportunity after a missed window was two years later.

ExoMars parachute progressExoMars to take off for the Red Planet in 2022ExoMars parachute testing continues

What happened.

ESA and Roscosmos announced in March 2020 that launch would be postponed to 2022. Additional component testing and pandemic restrictions prevented the planned 2020 launch.

ExoMars to take off for the Red Planet in 2022

Predicted vs actual.

MetricPredictedActualVariance / caveat
Launch windowJuly–August 2020Not launched in 2020; postponed in MarchOriginal window missed
ExoMars to take off for the Red Planet in 2022

The counter-signal.

High-altitude parachute tests in May and August 2019 damaged main canopies despite design changes. Those failures preceded the October schedule update and made qualification a visible source of deadline risk.

ExoMars parachute testing continues

Verdict.

Reasoning: contested · Outcome: wrong

The 2020 launch-date forecast was wrong, irrespective of whether the mission eventually launches. The later 2022 cancellation after Russia’s invasion is a separate forecast failure and is not used to explain the 2020 miss.

Original schedule, prior parachute failure, and postponement verified directly from ESA. Status is resolved, because launch has not subsequently realized this already-expired 2020 claim.

Cause of death / explanatory lens.

Right direction, wrong timing

The lesson.

Does the schedule allow enough time to redesign and repeat a failed critical test?

Sources.

  1. ExoMars parachute progressprimary · 2019-10-15 · claim
  2. ExoMars to take off for the Red Planet in 2022primary · 2020-03-12 · outcome
  3. ExoMars parachute testing continuesprimary · 2019-08-12 · counter_signal

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