The Prediction Graveyard
Made with ❤️ by Aniruddh JangidLinkedIn
The Graveyard / South African Department of Science and Technology

early · Unscored / disputed

South Africa’s Science and Technology department said construction of SKA1’s additional antennas would commence in 2018.

Source-backed summary; not presented as a verbatim quotation.

South African Department of Science and Technology
Government sponsor of SKA South Africa · South Africa

Made: 2015-11-10Resolved: 2022-12-05
Original conceptual trajectory diagram illustrating Right direction, wrong timing
Right direction, wrong timing. Original illustration for The Prediction Graveyard. Aniruddh Jangid, 2026. Original digital diagram. CC BY 4.0. Changes: none. This is a conceptual diagram, not an archival image.

The world at the time.

The department was acquiring land after the first-phase design was finalized. Its schedule distinguished existing MeerKAT antennas from the additional SKA1 dishes.

Land acquisition for SKA constructionSKAO celebrates construction startAfrican SKA ministerial meetingSKAO construction journeySKAO project history

What happened.

SKAO authorized construction and procurement in 2021, then held site construction-commencement ceremonies on December 5, 2022. The first SKA-Mid dish pedestal was erected in March 2024.

SKAO celebrates construction startSKAO construction journey

Predicted vs actual.

MetricPredictedActualVariance / caveat
SKA construction milestonesAdditional-antenna construction to commence in 2018Construction/procurement authorized 2021; site ceremonies 2022-12-05; first dish pedestal 2024-03-07All later milestones missed 2018; site ceremonies four calendar years later
SKAO celebrates construction startSKAO construction journey

The counter-signal.

The March 2015 African partner meeting still called for governance arrangements, funding proposals and mobilization of infrastructure resources. Those unresolved prerequisites limited confidence in a fixed 2018 start.

African SKA ministerial meeting

Verdict.

Reasoning: contested · Outcome: wrong

The 2018 additional-antenna schedule failed under each later construction milestone. Procurement authorization, site ceremonies and first dish work are kept distinct, and MeerKAT is not substituted for the additional SKA1 dishes.

SKAO construction formally began with procurement in 2021, whereas site commencement ceremonies were December 2022. This card compares physical/site milestones and explicitly avoids falsely treating 2022 as the first procurement activity.

Cause of death / explanatory lens.

Right direction, wrong timing

The lesson.

How should a multinational science project expose governance readiness alongside engineering schedules?

Sources.

  1. Land acquisition for SKA constructionprimary · 2015-11-10 · claim/date
  2. SKAO celebrates construction startprimary · 2022-12-05 · outcome
  3. African SKA ministerial meetingprimary · 2015-03-25 · contemporary counter-signal
  4. SKAO construction journeyprimary · Date not established · scope and outcome corroboration
  5. SKAO project historyprimary · Date not established · 2021 construction authorization and procurement distinction

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