resolved · Earned
“Hope probe will arrive to Mars on Feb. 9, 2021 at 7:42pm UAE timing.”
Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum / Emirates Mars Mission
UAE prime minister announcing the mission team's arrival projection · United Arab Emirates
The world at the time.
The announcement followed the third trajectory-correction manoeuvre during an already launched mission. A precise orbital-arrival projection therefore rested on observed spacecraft position and velocity.
What happened.
Hope successfully entered Mars orbit on the announced date and at the announced UAE time. The 27-minute braking manoeuvre delivered the planned arrival milestone.
Predicted vs actual.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Variance / caveat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mars orbit arrival | 2021-02-09, 19:42 UAE | 2021-02-09, 19:42 UAE | On announced date and time |
The counter-signal.
On 1 February, the mission's public briefing described orbital insertion as its most critical stage and gave it a 50% success chance. That was a meaningful execution risk despite precise trajectory timing.
Verdict.
Reasoning: sound · Outcome: right
The arrival forecast was correct and supported by a completed navigation update. The 50% insertion statement concerns mission success and should not be mistaken for uncertainty about the spacecraft reaching Mars's vicinity.
Cause of death / explanatory lens.
No cause of death assigned
The lesson.
How should forecasters separate precise navigation timing from the probability of successful execution?
Sources.
- Mohammed bin Rashid announces Hope Probe's arrivalprimary · 2020-11-08 · claim
- Leaders review Hope probe's final stagesprimary · 2021-02-01 · contemporary counter-signal
- Hope Probe successfully arrives to Marsprimary · 2021-02-09 · outcome
Related predictions.
Technology
United States
Demographics
United States
Technology
United States