resolved · Earned
“between 0.99 °C and 1.23 °C”
Met Office
UK national weather and climate service · United Kingdom
The world at the time.
The Met Office combined warming from greenhouse gases with short-term natural variability. It forecast another near-record warm year despite the absence of a strong El Niño boost.
What happened.
The WMO assessment placed 2020 at about 1.2°C above the same preindustrial baseline. The year was among the three warmest and inside the stated forecast range.
Predicted vs actual.
| Metric | Predicted | Actual | Variance / caveat |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 warming above 1850–1900 | 1.11°C; range 0.99–1.23°C | Approximately 1.2°C | +0.09°C from center; within range |
Forecast and observation.
| Reported measure | °C above 1850–1900 |
|---|---|
| Central forecast | 1.11 |
| Lower bound | 0.99 |
| Upper bound | 1.23 |
| Observation | 1.2 |
Reported comparison (°C above 1850–1900). The range is the published forecast interval. Statistical vintages and scope are explained above.
The counter-signal.
NOAA’s December 2019 outlook favored ENSO-neutral conditions through spring 2020. The lack of strong El Niño warming was a reason to avoid simply extrapolating 2016’s exceptional temperature upward.
Verdict.
Reasoning: sound · Outcome: right
The interval forecast succeeded even though the rounded outcome exceeded the central estimate. The outcome uses the WMO multi-dataset assessment, while the forecast combined three series, so small differences should not be overinterpreted.
Cause of death / explanatory lens.
No cause of death assigned
The lesson.
Are we scoring the probability interval or only its midpoint?
Sources.
- 2020 global temperature forecastprimary · 2019-12-19 · claim
- 2020: Climate indicators reveal worsening climateprimary · 2021 · outcome
- ENSO Diagnostic Discussionprimary · 2019-12-12 · counter_signal
Related predictions.
Technology
United States
Demographics
United States
Technology
United States