The Prediction Graveyard
Made with ❤️ by Aniruddh JangidLinkedIn
The Graveyard / World Health Organization

resolved · Earned

WHO’s 2016 analysis judged Cabo Verde among countries capable of reaching zero indigenous malaria cases by 2020.

Source-backed summary; not presented as a verbatim quotation.

World Health Organization
Global malaria programme assessing elimination feasibility · Cabo Verde

Made: 2016-04-12Resolved: 2020-12-31
Original conceptual trajectory diagram illustrating No cause of death assigned
Reasoning and outcomes. Original illustration for The Prediction Graveyard. Aniruddh Jangid, 2026. Original digital diagram. CC BY 4.0. Changes: none. This is a conceptual diagram, not an archival image.

The world at the time.

WHO selected countries with low incidence and a plausible elimination trajectory. This was a conditional feasibility judgment, not a guaranteed prediction of certification by 2020.

Eliminating malaria, WHO 2016 analysisZeroing in on malaria elimination: final E-2020 reportMoving towards sustainable elimination in Cape VerdeCabo Verde E-2020 country briefCabo Verde attains zero local transmissionWHO certifies Cabo Verde malaria-free

What happened.

Cabo Verde interrupted indigenous transmission and maintained zero cases through 2020. WHO later certified the country malaria-free in January 2024.

Zeroing in on malaria elimination: final E-2020 reportCabo Verde attains zero local transmission

Predicted vs actual.

MetricPredictedActualVariance / caveat
Indigenous malaria transmission by 2020Zero cases feasibleZero indigenous cases maintained through 2020Feasibility realized; certification followed in 2024
Zeroing in on malaria elimination: final E-2020 reportCabo Verde attains zero local transmission

The counter-signal.

WHO’s 2012 case study documented earlier elimination followed by renewed transmission. A 2017 outbreak during the forecast window provided a further warning that low incidence could reverse.

Moving towards sustainable elimination in Cape Verde

Verdict.

Reasoning: sound · Outcome: right

The judged feasibility of zero indigenous transmission by 2020 was realized. The later certification date does not invalidate this transmission-specific milestone.

Original WHO PDF fetch was blocked, but WHO publication overview plus official E-2020 retrospective verifies selection and date. January 2018 last-case details differ slightly across early reports; scoring uses verified zero throughout 2020 rather than exact last-case month.

Cause of death / explanatory lens.

No cause of death assigned

The lesson.

How should prior elimination followed by resurgence affect confidence in a new zero-transmission target?

Sources.

  1. Eliminating malaria, WHO 2016 analysisprimary · 2016-04-12 · claim/date
  2. Zeroing in on malaria elimination: final E-2020 reportprimary · 2021 · 2020 outcome
  3. Moving towards sustainable elimination in Cape Verdeprimary · 2012-10-18 · counter-signal available before prediction
  4. Cabo Verde E-2020 country briefprimary · 2018 · outbreak during forecast window
  5. Cabo Verde attains zero local transmissionprimary · 2021-04-22 · outcome and cause
  6. WHO certifies Cabo Verde malaria-freeprimary · 2024-01-12 · later certification

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